適逢歐美債信風暴席捲全球股市之際，本刊專訪羅素高級研究分析師連詩雅，談及美國經濟未來對全球經濟的影響，並對台股趨勢與產業前景提出獨到看法。歐美債信降評風暴愈演愈烈，不僅引發全球股災，也充分暴露出全球經濟板塊出現大挪移的現象。旗下掌管1600億美元資產的羅素投資，在資本市場具有舉足輕重的地位，其高級研究分析師連詩雅(Sarah Lien)經常到訪台灣及中國大陸，研究當地的基金經理，並與他們進行對話，對台灣與大陸產業與投資趨勢擁有獨到見解，此次接受《理財周刊》專訪，提出對下半年台股、房地產，甚至明(2012)年總統大選的看法。以下為訪談概要：台廠市場 大陸取代歐美《理財周刊》問(以下簡稱問)：歐美債信問題持續延燒，台灣科技業產品仰賴出口歐洲與美國市場比重頗高，對台灣產業與資本市場的衝擊如何？Given that European debt problem continues to spread and a high proportion of Taiwan technology products relying on exporting to European market, what impacts of these are having on Taiwan's technology industry and capital market?連詩雅答(以下簡稱答)：歐洲主權債務危機對台灣市場的直接影響是有限的，但如果歐洲政府債券評級被調低，這會導致利率上升，對歐洲企業和消費者帶來壓力。此外，由於台灣的科技公司提供大量產品出口到歐洲市場，因此主權債務危機會導致出口需求下降，進而顯示出口已有下降跡象，消費者對科技業的信心更是不樂觀。然而，從跟機構基金經理的訪談中得知，台灣科技股的估值吸引，市場上的壞消息亦已被吸收。同樣重要的是，中國大陸終端消費者對台灣產品的需求增加，加上中國大陸日漸開放的貿易環境，抵銷歐美發達市場需求疲弱對台灣市場的影響。While direct implications of European sovereign debt issues are limited, lower debt ratings for government bonds indirectly imply higher interest rates that would squeeze European businesses and consumers. Taiwanese technology companies export heavily to European markets, so there is a clear risk of decreased demand. We have already seen some softness in the display segment and sentiment for technology can broadly be characterized as poor.However, according to the institutional money managers that we interview, valuations are compelling and already reflecting bad news. Equally important, China is expected to become a more meaningful end consumer for Taiwanese goods given a more open trade environment, offsetting weak demand from the developed world. 問：美國第二輪貨幣量化寬鬆政策(QE2)才結束，但美國經濟數據表現仍出現疑慮，是否會推出QE3，對全球經濟與股市影響與衝擊評估？QE2 has just ended, but the performance of the U.S. economic data is still in concern. Do you think QE3 will be launched? How will QE3 impact on the global economy and stock market?答：我不是經濟學者，也不是貨幣政策方面的專家，但我們知道，很多環球基金經理都認為美國推出QE3的可能性不大。I am not an economist, nor an expert on monetary policy. What I do know well is what money managers are thinking globally, and in their expert opinion, QE3 is unlikely.問：美國若持續貨幣寬鬆與低利政策，美元可能持續走弱，那麼請問看好的投資區域是哪裡？If the U.S. continues the policies of monetary easing and low interest rates, the dollar may continue to be weak. Given this situation, what areas/regions are you bullish on for investment?答：我們相信美元會持續走弱一段很長的時間。因為儘管許多美國企業業績理想，但由於債務上限的討論，加上持續的房地產和就業問題，令許多基金經理不看好美國市場前景。在羅素旗艦世界股票基金中，我們大幅減持美國股票，買入新興和歐洲市場股票，而該基金投資於新興和歐洲市場的標的通常是消費必需品和非必需消費品，並遠離受監管的行業，例如金融、電信和公用股。We have been operating in a weak dollar environment for a long time and there is little indication that this will soon change. The debate over the debt ceiling, alongside continued housing and employment issues make many managers uneasy, despite strong earnings results across many US businesses. Russell's flagship World Equity Fund is notably underweight the US market in favor of emerging market and European stocks. Within these markets, our fund is skewed towards consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors and away from regulated sectors like financials, telecoms, and utilities.問：請問羅素投資集團看好的產業為何？原因是什麼？What industries are Russell Investments bullish on and why?看好半導體、智慧型手機答：羅素投資的旗艦亞太股票基金中，我們增持半導體，並減持硬體、軟體和相關電子服務。而基金經理推薦的企業包括台灣的台積電(2330)和聯電(2303)。相對於傳統的個人電腦(PC)，經理們最感興趣的是平板電腦(圖形輸入板)和智慧型手機供應鏈。電子科技股以外，我們同時增持了長榮航空(2618)和華固建設(2548)，雖然業內人士並未有增持相關股份，但我們的基金經理認為這些公司估值合理，並有長遠增長展望。Among the Taiwanese stock holdings in Russell's flagship Pacific Basin fund, we are overweight semiconductors and underweight hardware, software, and services. The underlying managers in the fund favor names like TSMC and United Microelectronics. Ultimately, managers are most interested in the tablet and smartphone supply chains as opposed to the traditional PC.Outside of the technology space, we are also overweight in select Taiwanese stocks such as EVA Airways and Huaku Development Co. Ltd. These are not industry calls, but specific stock picks that the underlying fund managers believe offer compelling valuation and growth profiles.問：台灣與大陸簽訂兩岸經濟合作架構協議(ECFA)，實際效益何時呈現？羅素投資或一般外資法人到底持什麼樣的態度與看法？是否評析對台灣產業面、經濟面與資本市場面等3個面向的看法？Taiwan and China signed the ECFA, when do you think the actual benefits will happen? What are Russell Investments or foreign institutional investors' attitude and opinion on this in terms of Taiwan industry, economy and capital market? 答：對外資法人來說，台灣是一個愈來愈具有吸引力的市場，其中一個原因是台灣與中國大陸之間開放自由的貿易市場，這表示市場正進行一個結構性的轉變，而這轉變需要長時間來實現。另一個重要的原因是台灣企業管理階層的素質良好，他們會致力為股東爭取高股息率。許多基金經理認為當企業盈利上升時，股息率亦會增加，而增加股息率亦證明該公司願意與股東分享努力的成果，而不是只賺進口袋。Taiwan is increasingly becoming a more interesting market to foreign institutional investors. A big part of this is freer trade with China, which should signal a structural shift in market dynamics. This is a long-term trend and will not happen overnight. Another important aspect of Taiwan's increased appeal to managers is simply the quality of management at many of the companies, especially with respect to their focus on paying dividends. Many money managers look to dividends as a tangible signal that the company's earnings are real and that management is committed to rewarding shareholders, not just fattening their own pockets. 問：台灣明年將進行總統大選，外資法人如何看選情？若現今執政黨敗退，對台灣經濟產業與股市的衝擊如何？Taiwan will hold its presidential election next year. What are institutional investors' views on the election? If the current ruling party retreated, what will happen to local economy and stock market?答：總統大選會令股市產生不確定性，台灣也不例外，但羅素投資沒有聽說過有任何基金經理因為明年的總統大選而撤出台灣市場。事實上，基金經理利用政治理由作為投資原因是不普遍的；相反的，他們會透過由下而上的方法來分析股票。因此，基金經理不會以選舉結果作為對台灣股市定位的評估標準。Elections always create uncertainty in stock markets, and Taiwan is no exception. Russell has not heard of any managers retreating from Taiwan on this basis alone. In fact, it is quite rare for money managers to use politics as a reason for or against investment; rather, they prefer to focus on bottom-up company fundamentals. For
